Chapter 7 Risk

7.1 Probability

Key Skills:

• u1 Be able to identify relevant equally likely outcomes in appropriate contexts.
• u2 Be able to count equally likely outcomes in appropriate contexts and hence estimate a probability.
• u3 Be able to estimate probability from long-run relative frequency.
• u4 Be able to interpret two-way tables and use them to calculate or estimate probability.
• u5 Understand the difference between dependent and independent events and be able to calculate probability in simple cases.
• u6 Be able to work with a tree diagram when calculating or estimating a probability, including conditional probability.

7.2 Risk

Key Skills:

• u7 Understand risk given as a probability or as 1 in n or as a description such as “once in n years”.
• u8 Be able to interpret a risk assessment, understanding that it involves measures of both likelihood and impact.